Playing For Big Stakes
2007-08-23 14:41:31
By:
Gene Bromberg
So what's your idea of high-stakes gambling? Feeding a hundred-dollar bill into a slot machine? Sitting down with a thousand bucks in chips at a $5-10 No-Limit Game? Or is dropping ten grand to play in the World Series of Poker Main Event your idea of gambling big?
Well, how does betting $3.4 billion sound to you? Probably sounds good, as it's likely you don't have $3.4 billion in your savings account. Neither do I. But the U.S. government does, and those are the stakes the United States and Antigua are playing for as the island nation's World Trade Organization dispute heads toward a (possibly) final resolution. In a
must-read article in today's New York Times, the case and the stakes are spelled out in crisp, clear detail.
Both the U.S. government and the WTO have painted themselves into tight little corners. The United States can't very well expect other countries (China, for example) to toe the line on WTO rulings if it's unwilling to follow decisions that inconvieniently go against them. The WTO, on the other hand, won't have much credibility if it's seen to kowtow to the 800-pound gorilla who provides the majority of it's funding.
A wide swath of the U.S. population has shown itself to be violently xenophobic over the last six or so years, and the idea of paying Antigua that sum of money because of a ruling by a multi-national trade organization would not go over well in the halls of Congress. Then again, if the United States doesn't pay up, Antigua's attorney (Mark E. Mendel, a Texan) has requested that they be allowed a unique way to retaliate. He's asked that Antigua be allowed to violate U.S. intellectual property laws--in effect turning the island into the piracy capital of the world. It's likely that companies like Microsoft and Disney wouldn't take too kindly to that, and could bring their own considerable pressure to bear on Congress.
Who's in the right here? Mendel makes a pretty strong case with just a few words:
"This isn't a case of forcing gambling on a population that has decided they don't like it," Mr. Mendel said. "This is the world's biggest consumer and exporter of gambling services trying to prohibit a small country from developing its economy by offering these same services. And we find that deeply hypocritical."
What will happen? Well, unfortunately, deep hypocrisy seems to be a defining characteristic of the U.S. government. It seems very unlikely that the United States would acceed to the WTO's rulings, as following international law doesn't seem to be high on the priority list. Given a choice between accepting the WTO's decision or letting it become a toothless laughtingstock, I think the U.S. government will choose the latter in a heartbeat, no matter how serious the long-term trade ramifications may be. But I've been wrong before (I'm sure I have, at least once) and maybe I'll be wrong this time. We'll just have to wait to see what happens in Geneva.
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