More Reason To Hope
2007-09-18 19:18:35
By:
Gene Bromberg
There's an
article in Newsweek (Newsweek International, but still) that discusses the WTO claim filed by Antigua against the United States for the latter's attempts to ban foreign online gaming sites from doing business in the U.S. The piece gives the most optimistic outlook for the future of American online gaming that I've seen--in fact, it's more optimistic than I've even dared to dream.
But that may because the reporter (Emily Flynn Vencat) had access to information I was unaware of. For example, with the WTO giving Antigua the right to violate U.S. intellectual property laws as a form of retaliation, it was thought that big software and entertainment compaines would take notice and make some noise. According to Vencat, they've done just that:
It's no surprise that lobbyists from Silicon Valley and Hollywood are now storming Capitol Hill, pushing for a deal. Last month the Motion Picture Association of America urged the U.S. trade representative to negotiate with Antigua in order to prevent bootlegging.
Now, I think that the chances of the Bush Administration changing it's position in the face of WTO pressure is about the same as a one-outer hitting on the river. Correction, the same chance as ME hitting a one-outer on the river--i.e., zero. It's not going to happen. However, the Bush Administration is only going to be around for another sixteen months or so, and as the next President will doubtless have a more reasonable view of online gaming. Bill Frist decided not to run, right?
There's another aspect of the WTO ruling that I didn't fully appreciate. It woudn't just be Antigua who is asking for compensation because of the stand the United States has taken--any nation who felt their right to compete for the American market was infringed upon could join the queue. Again, from Vencat's article:
"Eight other WTO members, including the European Union, Australia and Japan, are now lining up to claim compensation from the United States over online gaming. 'The EU is almost licking its chops,' says Antigua's lawyer (Mark) Mendel. 'In total, this could come to $100 billion in sanctions.'"
One has to take the claims made by a plaintiff's lawyer with a big grain of salt, but a hundred billion dollars is, any way you cut it, A LOT of money. Enough to raise the profile of the online gaming issue high enough to get Congress's (and the new President's) close attention.
Like I said, while I'm optimistic, I'm not as optimistic as Vencat's article. Nor am I as optimistic as Sallie James, a trade-policy analyst at the Cato Institute. Though I will admit that I got almost giddy reading her quote that closed out the article:
"This won't happen fast; America is going to dig its heels in," (said) James, "(b)ut if I had to bet, I would say that by this time next year America will have changed its laws."
Vencat closes her story with the line, "And in this case, that means all bets will be on." Good line. Let's hope her story turns out to have just as good of an ending.
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