Looking Forward
2008-01-02 16:32:25
By:
Gene Bromberg
Now that we have both feet firmly planted in 2008 (New Year's Day was spent in a limbo of Advil, bottled water, and football on the TV with the sound turned down) it's time to look ahead at what the year might hold. Judging from what happened last year, it might've been a good idea to spend at least part of 2007 getting a degree in political science.
Because quite often in the last 12 months poker players have had to become familiar with the strange machinations of Congressional politics, the inner workings of the European Union, and gnarly international trade agreements. Pity the friend of the poker player who happens to be a lawyer--no doubt that friend received many phone calls during the year from some irate rounder asking, "Is what they're doing legal? Is what I'm doing legal? Who's right and who's wrong here?"
How poker's legal landscape changes over the next 12 months will no doubt hold the attention of players around the world. Already there's been bad news--on New Year's Day
Germany implimented a ban on online gaming. How this will affect German poker players remains to be seen--reading about the subject on the poker forums many players think this doesn't change anything. In the article I linked to one of the poker sites mentioned thinks the law will be overturned in the courts. What's going to happen? Heavens knows.
Just as no one really knows what's going to happen here in the U.S. Now that the United States got off easy in it's WTO dispute with Antigua and the E.U., what external pressure there might be to change the government's approach to online gambling is gone. Not that I think that the U.S. government would've cared a whit about what the WTO did or said. But 2008 is an election year, and it's a biggie. We'll have a new President to go along with those Senate seats that are up, and of course every member of the House will stand for re-election. Is it possible that either Barney Frank's or Robert Wexler's bills to legalize online gaming (or, at least, online poker) will garner enough support that they'll be brought to a vote? If such a law is passed, would President Bush veto it?
Immediately following the PPA's lobbying push back in November Barry Greenstein said that he expected that online poker would be legal within six months. I thought that was an extremely optimistic view and I still think that. I would be stunned, nay, flabbergasted if any pro-gaming legislation made it through Congress this year and garnered George Bush's signature. Then again, Greenstein did speak directly to many members of Congress and their staffers, he certainly has more insider info than I do, and it isn't like Barry is known for off-the-cuff hyperbole. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but I don't think so. Still, maybe a little optimism is what's needed in the poker world, after such a frustrating year.
Of course, 2007 wasn't ALL about pouring over legal briefs and howling about the hypocrisy of the U.S. government. The games went on, as they will in 2008. And it's going to be another huge year for poker. Once again we'll see massive fields at the World Series and on the World Poker Tour. More and more tournaments are popping up all over Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Australia. And, of course, this year's
Aruba Poker Classic will be the biggest UB has ever hosted, with a guaranteed first-prize of $1 million. Hey, maybe by that time there WILL be a law passed fully legalizing online poker. I would be quite pleased to stop having to write about trade wars and committee hearings and get back to some good, old-fashioned bad beat stories.
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